Publications

Trade union demands are a key input for collective bargaining negotiations (CBNs). However, there is little quantitative evidence on these demands and how they shape CBN outcomes. We digitize novel data on union demands for wages and non-wage amenities to examine the relationship between demands and outcomes in German CBNs from 1993 to 2019. We find CBNs cover a rich set of non-wage amenities in addition to wages. We show how these objectives are traded off against each other in the demands made by unions and in the outcomes of CBNs. We further investigate how CBNs reflect macroeconomic and labor market conditions.

We use a simple yet powerful approach to investigate the dynamics of worker flows across sectors in the Spanish economy. The method imposes a minimal amount of structure on the data by assuming sector-specific matching functions, and backs out the direction of workers’ search intensities across sectors using data on realised worker flows and vacancies. We find that aggregate search intensity in Spain has been increasing since the pandemic and has led aggregate labour shortages to be below pre-pandemic levels by 2023. However, this boost of search intensity is directed to industries with low matching efficiencies and job finding rates. As a result, aggregate match formation is near to a 10-years low relative to the number of matches that would result if search intensity was allocated to maximise total matches given the observed vacancy distribution and match efficiencies across sectors.

The impact of the pandemic on the UK labour market has been extremely heterogeneous across occupations and industries. Using novel data on job search, we document how individuals adjust their job search in response to changing employment patterns across occupations and industries in the UK. We observe that workers changed their search direction in favour of expanding occupations and industries as the pandemic developed. However, non-employed workers are more attached to their previous occupations and workers with low education are more likely to target declining occupations. We also observe workers from declining occupations making fewer transitions to expanding occupations than those who start in expanding occupations, despite targeting these jobs relatively frequently. This suggests those at the margins of the labour market may be least able to escape occupations that declined during the pandemic.

We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes. First, we apply modern machine learning tools to predict who is affected by the policy. Second, we implement an event study using 172 prominent minimum wage increases between 1979 and 2019. We find a clear increase in wages of affected workers and no change in employment. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have no effect on the unemployment rate, labor force participation, or labor market transitions. Overall, these findings provide little evidence of changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase.

Work in Progress

Sectoral Labour Flow Accounting: A Matching Function Approach

Social Moblity: Human Capital and Labour Markets

Teaching

  • 2022-23, MSc Econ, Essex, Data Science for Economics
  • 2021-23, BSc Econ, Essex, Introuction to Quantitative Economics (Econometrics)
  • 2016-17, BSc Econ, UCL, Industrial Relations
  • 2015-16, BSc Econ, UCL, Introduction to Economics
  • 2014-15, BSc Econ, UCL, International Trade
  • 2014-15,UCL, Awarded Teaching Excellence Award